In recent news, it is purported that a new moon mining treaty may be in the works to set rules for mining resources on the Moon. The Artemis Accords is another development in a new space race to the Moon.
From a geopolitical perspective, one thesis could be that dominance of the Moon can act as a strategic counterbalance or offset to the eventual integration of the "world-island."
In 1904, Halford Mackinder put forth his Heartland Theory which posits:
Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;
who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;
who rules the World-Island commands the world."
Thus one aim of American foreign policy at least according to Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former US National Security Advisor, was to prevent dominance of any one nation of the Eurasian land-mass.
Eventual integration and dominance of the world-island may happen at some point in the future which would require strategic counterbalances against the world-island hegemony. Strategic offsets have largely been technological for the recent past, but can be based on other premise such as control of vital resources. A Lunar strategic offset is one possible gambit.
If technological breakthroughs such as He3 fusion come to fruition within the next decades, such an effort to mine the moon would pay off handsomely.
Over the next several decades and beyond, competition (economic and geostrategic) in the space between the Earth and the Moon will only heat up. Instead of just purely exploratory lense, the Moon will be seen as an object of astropolitical Great (Space) Power competition.
Specifically, the poles of the Moon and Lagrange points will be strategic areas of contention. The poles will have most viable resources of water for refueling vehicles and logistical points.
For the most part, robots will be the vanguard of this increasing competition which will keep the lines of communication and trade routes open on a new "High Seas."
