Wednesday, February 1, 2017
Worlds War 1
After having watched season 1 of The Expanse, I have been thinking that the interplanetary conflict between integrated world polities would not be the likely future. Putting forth a purely hypothetical model, 4 or 5 or even 6 Great Power blocs on Earth would set about setting up largely independent (from each other) settlements on any future planetary bodies, the Outer Space Treaty notwithstanding. To illustrate, a parallel can be drawn between the unfolding of the European dominance of the rest of the world over the last 500 years. Projecting forward 500 years, we can model that the colonization of the Solar system to follow the roughly 3 phases much as European powers had taken over much of the world over the last half millennium..
Much of these phases overlap as many outposts had been established by the Europeans across the world. The first object of Great Space Rivalry will be the Moon and control of cislunar space. Similarly, the Americas became the first major colonial possession of European powers in the 16th and 17th centuries. Spain and Portugal had a century jump on other powers, but others such as England, France, and Netherlands got their own later on.
The powers had many trade routes and outposts developed in Asia. Similarly, outposts of human colonies will be established relatively soon on the inner planets. But much of the rivalry will focus on lunar space until it shifts to the other inner systems as those systems become more developed.
Scramble for the Gas Giants?
The third major phase was subjugation of much of Africa by European empires. Seeking resources, the Outer planets would eventually be "expropriated" for use by the inner colonies and Earth. By this time or even before, new "nations" derived from the inner planet settlements will seek independence from their mother (Earth) countries. Some of these may become great powers in their own right and join with the other great powers to get their own piece of the solar system pie. To be sure, there will be outposts in the Outer System much earlier, but won't be much contended until developed to a certain 'saturation' level.
Interstate rivals, Worlds Wars
As each celestial body would be split up by the Great Space powers, each colony would affect the balance of power in the planetary system and also balance among the Powers in the solar system.
As each is first to the Moon, Mars, etc., it will induce efforts from rivals to establish their own colonies on the moon, mars and so forth.
So when would the first "worlds war" happen? It will be from the result of rivalry over resources and 'prime locations' on the Moon. In the first years of the 18th century, one of the first world wars (as counted by historians) was the War of the Spanish Succession. This war was fought by many European power across several continents. In much the same way, a future Worlds War would be fought by the Major Space Powers across several planetary fronts.
Monday, January 16, 2017
The Expanse Season 2 starts 1 February 2017
Now that the 2nd season of The Expanse is coming, I can now binge its season 1 (which conveniently came to streaming on Amazon Prime last month). The treatment of the 'heliopolitical' conflict of the solar system's colonies and Earth over resources and self-government are interesting.
Thursday, January 12, 2017
CNN: War in Space- The Next Battlefield
In perhaps a follow-up to 60 Minutes' 2015 report on space war, CNN has put out a Special Report "War in Space-The Next Battlefield."
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
Blood Chit (MicroStory)
Captain Gray awoke on an alien planet. "Holy Sh..." he spoke into his comm loudly enough his mic picked it up and transmitted.
It was coming back to him. He looked around the escape pod, the displays were flashing warnings. His escort ship had inexplicitly failed.
"Some infernal Centaurian meddling no doubt." Gray grumbled. At least his pod was smart enough to set down in a 'mild' climatic region of the planet. Minus 50C outside was rather mild to other planets he had had the misfortune to visit.
He punched a button and voiced a command to launch a small surveyor probe to map the local area.
He knew, unfortunately, the closest Solarian outpost must be on the other side of the planet while a Centaurian outpost lay closer to his location. No doubt they picked up his distress signal. He hoped that they were doing more important things at the moment.
But he had to assume they would be closing in on his landing area based on his last known trajectory.
The intel on the natives was not extensive, but a rudimentary dictionary of their language had been mapped. It was a heat signature based language. By changing the thermal signature of their appearance, each could communicate to each other in dazzling displays of infrared light.
The humans nicknamed them ‘Torches’ as they appeared like flaming torches on the thermal sensor displays. The Torches were a pre-industrial society. Both humans and Centaurians had come to an agreement on treatment of natives of pre-industrial non-aligned planets. Each side attempted to not be detected by the natives nor attempted to shape the inhabitants' future. This agreement was routinely ignored by both sides. Ever since the end of the Centaurian war, each side had endeavored to survey and stake claims to as many worlds in the stellar neighborhood as possible.
Gray had his EVA suit dialed into the climate, he was a worried the nuclear-powered suit would light him up like a Christmas tree against the cold night. He remembered to put in the language display on his suit. He was uncertain how the Torches would interpret his appearance. But if he was to escape detection by the Centaurians, he would need to enlist the native help.
"Here goes nothing." He reached of the handle to open his craft and pulled it, the door slid aside while he lumbered like out like some clumsy giant. His display showed a village to his north, so he beared towards it.
He commanded to display the message 'blood chit.'
----------
Maraxthul saw something in the corner of her eye. She stood up on her legs and was astonished. A very brightly-lit thing was walking right toward her. As it got closer she almost fainted. Could it be? An angel? It was saying something.
"Fear not. I am from the heaven. My protective egg is thrown down. Understand me. Please take me to the nearest heaven. You will be nurtured."
"Blessed Graoxul!" She shouted and bowed her head down. "I will do as you have commanded me." Though somewhat perplexed at the angel's grammar, she ran off and later came back with the village shaman. She was emphatic, "see, it is what has been foretold."
The shaman looked at the brightness of the being before them. "I think it is Providence, Maraxthul, come to bring another blessing to our people, but if he wants to go to heaven, let us not delay him." He said to Captain Gray "come with me."
----------
Captain Gray followed the two Torches. He hoped his message had been translated correctly. The one taller one was telling him to keep following him into one of the buildings. His translator was working on its signage. In it, his sensors could barely make out any thermal or light signatures. Suddenly, he felt a sense of falling. He landed with a load thud. It was dark in here as well. He voiced a command to turn his exterior lights on.
----------
A gathering of Torches had by then gathered in front of the building.
The shaman said a prayer "Oh, Graoxul, thank you Blessed One for this sacrifice you have provided to us from the heavens on this longest of nights, Holy Solstice."
----------
In growing panic Captain Gray turned his namesake as he saw stacks of Centaurian bones before him. A bell-like 'ding' sounded in his ear while his HUD displayed the sign’s translation.
‘Village Butcher.’
It was coming back to him. He looked around the escape pod, the displays were flashing warnings. His escort ship had inexplicitly failed.
"Some infernal Centaurian meddling no doubt." Gray grumbled. At least his pod was smart enough to set down in a 'mild' climatic region of the planet. Minus 50C outside was rather mild to other planets he had had the misfortune to visit.
He punched a button and voiced a command to launch a small surveyor probe to map the local area.
He knew, unfortunately, the closest Solarian outpost must be on the other side of the planet while a Centaurian outpost lay closer to his location. No doubt they picked up his distress signal. He hoped that they were doing more important things at the moment.
But he had to assume they would be closing in on his landing area based on his last known trajectory.
The intel on the natives was not extensive, but a rudimentary dictionary of their language had been mapped. It was a heat signature based language. By changing the thermal signature of their appearance, each could communicate to each other in dazzling displays of infrared light.
The humans nicknamed them ‘Torches’ as they appeared like flaming torches on the thermal sensor displays. The Torches were a pre-industrial society. Both humans and Centaurians had come to an agreement on treatment of natives of pre-industrial non-aligned planets. Each side attempted to not be detected by the natives nor attempted to shape the inhabitants' future. This agreement was routinely ignored by both sides. Ever since the end of the Centaurian war, each side had endeavored to survey and stake claims to as many worlds in the stellar neighborhood as possible.
Gray had his EVA suit dialed into the climate, he was a worried the nuclear-powered suit would light him up like a Christmas tree against the cold night. He remembered to put in the language display on his suit. He was uncertain how the Torches would interpret his appearance. But if he was to escape detection by the Centaurians, he would need to enlist the native help.
"Here goes nothing." He reached of the handle to open his craft and pulled it, the door slid aside while he lumbered like out like some clumsy giant. His display showed a village to his north, so he beared towards it.
He commanded to display the message 'blood chit.'
----------
Maraxthul saw something in the corner of her eye. She stood up on her legs and was astonished. A very brightly-lit thing was walking right toward her. As it got closer she almost fainted. Could it be? An angel? It was saying something.
"Fear not. I am from the heaven. My protective egg is thrown down. Understand me. Please take me to the nearest heaven. You will be nurtured."
"Blessed Graoxul!" She shouted and bowed her head down. "I will do as you have commanded me." Though somewhat perplexed at the angel's grammar, she ran off and later came back with the village shaman. She was emphatic, "see, it is what has been foretold."
The shaman looked at the brightness of the being before them. "I think it is Providence, Maraxthul, come to bring another blessing to our people, but if he wants to go to heaven, let us not delay him." He said to Captain Gray "come with me."
----------
Captain Gray followed the two Torches. He hoped his message had been translated correctly. The one taller one was telling him to keep following him into one of the buildings. His translator was working on its signage. In it, his sensors could barely make out any thermal or light signatures. Suddenly, he felt a sense of falling. He landed with a load thud. It was dark in here as well. He voiced a command to turn his exterior lights on.
----------
A gathering of Torches had by then gathered in front of the building.
The shaman said a prayer "Oh, Graoxul, thank you Blessed One for this sacrifice you have provided to us from the heavens on this longest of nights, Holy Solstice."
----------
In growing panic Captain Gray turned his namesake as he saw stacks of Centaurian bones before him. A bell-like 'ding' sounded in his ear while his HUD displayed the sign’s translation.
‘Village Butcher.’
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Humanity’s first interstellar war will likely be human vs. human
Much speculation on interstellar war as depicted in fiction
has humans (the good guys) pitted against alien beings (usually monstrous bad
guys). Usually this takes the form of
advanced alien civilizations attacking and invading Earth while humans fight
back to save the day. But in reality,
interstellar wars will more likely take place between various branches of
humanity that have colonized the nearest stars.
To compare the two likely scenarios human vs. human and alien vs. human,
one can compare the likelihoods given distance to the nearest civilization. Advanced alien civilizations are likely very
far from Sol and thus less likely to make contact. One calculation of the Drake equation places
a 75% chance of finding an alien civilization between ~1400 and 4000 light-years away, while the chances of finding one within 500LYA drop to nearly
nil. Meanwhile, the number of star
systems to potentially colonize within 500LYA rises to ~2M stars. While this may not address the number of
non-advanced alien civilizations (which humans would conquer) which may exist and
may number greater than advanced ones, the likelihood of encountering such is
still relatively low.
Another issue is civilizations existing on the same
timeline. More likely is finding defunct
alien civilizations long dead (Yay, space archeology!) than ones existing. But if the civilizations are related
genetically (i.e. branches of humanity), the probability that they would be ‘chronically
parallel’ would be much higher than the former case. Combining the 2 factors distance and
timeline, human cousin civilizations would be far more likely to be fighting each
other over control of the stellar neighborhood (hey, I was wondering why there
were so many ‘humanoid’ aliens on Star Trek J).
Monday, October 3, 2016
A Much Needed Vacation(micro-story)
“A vacation on the surface!” “She wants a vacation on the surface!” growled Lou as he looked over the drawings of his latest project.
His assistant Harry agreed readily knowing his boss was such a workaholic.
“In any case, I have to get this proposal in to the city council for review and approval before I can even think of any vacations.”
“And to think of the bureaucracy we’ll have to go through to get the project through, we’ll be lucky to turn any profit after they're done with us. It’s enough to make one retire, you know?”
“If you retire, then what would you do?” Asked Harry.
Lou smiled. He knew he would be bored out of his mind if he retired. Besides, if he got this contract, his company would have work for as long as he could imagine. The project would entail hollowing out another 5 million cubic km to effectively doubling the vast subterranean city’s space. The overcrowding of the existing city was overburdening its infrastructure. New livable space and new infrastructure were badly needed for the ever growing population of this metropolis. Of course that didn’t stop the infighting on the details and the right mix of infrastructure and development to keep attracting new residents. The city was competing with other underground cities across the world for businesses and the right talent to keep the city the best place to be. There were even sky cities now that they had to compete with. ‘sky cities, how in the hell would that work?’ thought Lou to himself as he heard a knock on the door.
He opened the door “Councilman, how are you? How’s the good Mayor doing? What can I do for you?”
“Oh, we’re fine, fine. You know I’m your friend, right? I have some bad news. The mayor wants more environmental risk assessments to be done before we can consider moving ahead with the expansion project.”
Lou felt his face redden as he offered his guest a drink. Knowing Lou had a bad temper, Harry nervously poured the 2 drinks for his boss and the Councilman.
"I hope your trip went well, nonetheless, Mike."
Mike returned "well you know, quantum elevators, it's almost magical, if I didn't know better."
"Yes, interdimensional travel isn't my cup of tea either." Getting back to business Lou asked point blank. "Why exactly is the mayor delaying?"
"I told you, environmental risk assessments." Mike replied "You know, the job could cause floods, earthquakes eruptions on the surface, right?"
"Hogwash! You know very well that my company has perfected the tectonic stabilization technology. Damn it I have billions riding on this thing, what are you trying to put me out of business?" Lou lit up a cigarette, one old habit he maintained. He knew it drove the do-gooders crazy.
Mike replied "no, we do though want some more competition in the market place. There is a possibility to assess one of your competitors' bids."
"You're seriously not considering going with one one of those devils, are you? They'll totally screw it up believe me, we'll be having pandemonium up there."
"Like I said, competition" Mike insisted.
"Alright, alright, I'll just wait til you come crawling back to me when one of the others screws it up." Lou said sarcastically.
"I'm sure you're right about that, Lou"
With that Lou addressed Harry "Harry, can you send a message to Persephone and tell her that I will take that vacation after all. Wherever she wants to go. I'm feeling a little cramped down here all of the sudden."
Mike got up to leave and said once more that he was sorry to be a bearer of bad news.
He went out the door and took a look at the company name stencilled on the outside of it. He read it out aloud "Hades Real Estate Development Corp. the best in the underworld." "I'm sure it is, I'm sure it is" he said as he walked to the elevator.
Copyright 2016
His assistant Harry agreed readily knowing his boss was such a workaholic.
“In any case, I have to get this proposal in to the city council for review and approval before I can even think of any vacations.”
“And to think of the bureaucracy we’ll have to go through to get the project through, we’ll be lucky to turn any profit after they're done with us. It’s enough to make one retire, you know?”
“If you retire, then what would you do?” Asked Harry.
Lou smiled. He knew he would be bored out of his mind if he retired. Besides, if he got this contract, his company would have work for as long as he could imagine. The project would entail hollowing out another 5 million cubic km to effectively doubling the vast subterranean city’s space. The overcrowding of the existing city was overburdening its infrastructure. New livable space and new infrastructure were badly needed for the ever growing population of this metropolis. Of course that didn’t stop the infighting on the details and the right mix of infrastructure and development to keep attracting new residents. The city was competing with other underground cities across the world for businesses and the right talent to keep the city the best place to be. There were even sky cities now that they had to compete with. ‘sky cities, how in the hell would that work?’ thought Lou to himself as he heard a knock on the door.
He opened the door “Councilman, how are you? How’s the good Mayor doing? What can I do for you?”
“Oh, we’re fine, fine. You know I’m your friend, right? I have some bad news. The mayor wants more environmental risk assessments to be done before we can consider moving ahead with the expansion project.”
Lou felt his face redden as he offered his guest a drink. Knowing Lou had a bad temper, Harry nervously poured the 2 drinks for his boss and the Councilman.
"I hope your trip went well, nonetheless, Mike."
Mike returned "well you know, quantum elevators, it's almost magical, if I didn't know better."
"Yes, interdimensional travel isn't my cup of tea either." Getting back to business Lou asked point blank. "Why exactly is the mayor delaying?"
"I told you, environmental risk assessments." Mike replied "You know, the job could cause floods, earthquakes eruptions on the surface, right?"
"Hogwash! You know very well that my company has perfected the tectonic stabilization technology. Damn it I have billions riding on this thing, what are you trying to put me out of business?" Lou lit up a cigarette, one old habit he maintained. He knew it drove the do-gooders crazy.
Mike replied "no, we do though want some more competition in the market place. There is a possibility to assess one of your competitors' bids."
"You're seriously not considering going with one one of those devils, are you? They'll totally screw it up believe me, we'll be having pandemonium up there."
"Like I said, competition" Mike insisted.
"Alright, alright, I'll just wait til you come crawling back to me when one of the others screws it up." Lou said sarcastically.
"I'm sure you're right about that, Lou"
With that Lou addressed Harry "Harry, can you send a message to Persephone and tell her that I will take that vacation after all. Wherever she wants to go. I'm feeling a little cramped down here all of the sudden."
Mike got up to leave and said once more that he was sorry to be a bearer of bad news.
He went out the door and took a look at the company name stencilled on the outside of it. He read it out aloud "Hades Real Estate Development Corp. the best in the underworld." "I'm sure it is, I'm sure it is" he said as he walked to the elevator.
Copyright 2016
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
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