Humanity’s first interstellar war will likely be human vs. human

Much speculation on interstellar war as depicted in fiction has humans (the good guys) pitted against alien beings (usually monstrous bad guys).  Usually this takes the form of advanced alien civilizations attacking and invading Earth while humans fight back to save the day.  But in reality, interstellar wars will more likely take place between various branches of humanity that have colonized the nearest stars.  To compare the two likely scenarios human vs. human and alien vs. human, one can compare the likelihoods given distance to the nearest civilization.  Advanced alien civilizations are likely very far from Sol and thus less likely to make contact.  One calculation of the Drake equation places a 75% chance of finding an alien civilization between ~1400 and 4000 light-years away, while the chances of finding one within 500LYA drop to nearly nil.  Meanwhile, the number of star systems to potentially colonize within 500LYA rises to ~2M stars.  While this may not address the number of non-advanced alien civilizations (which humans would conquer) which may exist and may number greater than advanced ones, the likelihood of encountering such is still relatively low. 

Another issue is civilizations existing on the same timeline.  More likely is finding defunct alien civilizations long dead (Yay, space archeology!) than ones existing.  But if the civilizations are related genetically (i.e. branches of humanity), the probability that they would be ‘chronically parallel’ would be much higher than the former case.  Combining the 2 factors distance and timeline, human cousin civilizations would be far more likely to be fighting each other over control of the stellar neighborhood (hey, I was wondering why there were so many ‘humanoid’ aliens on Star Trek J).

A Much Needed Vacation(micro-story)

“A vacation on the surface!” “She wants a vacation on the surface!” growled Lou as he looked over the drawings of his latest project.
His assistant Harry agreed readily knowing his boss was such a workaholic.
“In any case, I have to get this proposal in to the city council for review and approval before I can even think of any vacations.”
“And to think of the bureaucracy we’ll have to go through to get the project through, we’ll be lucky to turn any profit after they're done with us. It’s enough to make one retire, you know?”
“If you retire, then what would you do?” Asked Harry.
Lou smiled. He knew he would be bored out of his mind if he retired. Besides, if he got this contract, his company would have work for as long as he could imagine. The project would entail hollowing out another 5 million cubic km to effectively doubling the vast subterranean city’s space. The overcrowding of the existing city was overburdening its infrastructure. New livable space and new infrastructure were badly needed for the ever growing population of this metropolis. Of course that didn’t stop the infighting on the details and the right mix of infrastructure and development to keep attracting new residents. The city was competing with other underground cities across the world for businesses and the right talent to keep the city the best place to be. There were even sky cities now that they had to compete with. ‘sky cities, how in the hell would that work?’ thought Lou to himself as he heard a knock on the door.
He opened the door “Councilman, how are you? How’s the good Mayor doing? What can I do for you?”
“Oh, we’re fine, fine. You know I’m your friend, right? I have some bad news. The mayor wants more environmental risk assessments to be done before we can consider moving ahead with the expansion project.”
Lou felt his face redden as he offered his guest a drink. Knowing Lou had a bad temper, Harry nervously poured the 2 drinks for his boss and the Councilman.
"I hope your trip went well, nonetheless, Mike."
Mike returned "well you know, quantum elevators, it's almost magical, if I didn't know better."
"Yes, interdimensional travel isn't my cup of tea either." Getting back to business Lou asked point blank. "Why exactly is the mayor delaying?"
"I told you, environmental risk assessments." Mike replied "You know, the job could cause floods, earthquakes eruptions on the surface, right?"
"Hogwash! You know very well that my company has perfected the tectonic stabilization technology. Damn it I have billions riding on this thing, what are you trying to put me out of business?" Lou lit up a cigarette, one old habit he maintained. He knew it drove the do-gooders crazy.
Mike replied "no, we do though want some more competition in the market place. There is a possibility to assess one of your competitors' bids."
"You're seriously not considering going with one one of those devils, are you? They'll totally screw it up believe me, we'll be having pandemonium up there."
"Like I said, competition" Mike insisted.
"Alright, alright, I'll just wait til you come crawling back to me when one of the others screws it up." Lou said sarcastically.
"I'm sure you're right about that, Lou"
With that Lou addressed Harry "Harry, can you send a message to Persephone and tell her that I will take that vacation after all. Wherever she wants to go. I'm feeling a little cramped down here all of the sudden."
Mike got up to leave and said once more that he was sorry to be a bearer of bad news.
He went out the door and took a look at the company name stencilled on the outside of it. He read it out aloud "Hades Real Estate Development Corp. the best in the underworld." "I'm sure it is, I'm sure it is" he said as he walked to the elevator.    


Copyright 2016

Upcoming Movie: "Passengers"

Recent trailer for "Passengers" coming out December 21.

Starset Video "My Demons"

National Space Security Strategy: The Space Show guest Christopher Stone

Here is link to interesting Space Show episode (hosted by Dr. Livingston) on space deterrence and security policy.

TED Talk, Nick Bostrom on Existential Risk

Here is an interesting talk given by Nick Bostrom of Oxford on humanity's existential risk of extinction. 

Higher! (microstory)

Higher!  

“I’m sorry Dr. Fiain, your funding from the High Ministry has been denied.  They think there is no point to see what is on other side of the æther.” 

“Well, I’ll have to find another way” replied Fiain to the Official. 

Fiain exited the room and walked to an awaiting vehicle.  He undocked and distractedly punched the collective to rise.  He rose a little too quickly and was greeted by a holler “hey, you’re in my air-space jerk!”  He sheepishly slowed the ascent and then redirected his ship toward Bubble 3258, where his abode was.  Upon docking he was met by a young slender figure who said “Sorry it didn’t go too well today at the Ministry.”

Taken aback Fiain said “I’m sorry, who are you?”

“Just call me Captain Veineas,” she replied.

Fiain:  “How do you know me?  How do you know about my project?” 

V:  “Other interests within the Ministry have differing views on your project and have sent me to help you to build a ship.  I am part of the ship-works research division.” 

F:  “Ok, but without resources, we aren’t getting anywhere.”

V:  “Well, a sponsor in Bubble 9 has seen fit to give you anything you need for your project.” 

F:  “Bubble 9?  That’s the head office of the æther-mining authority.  Why do they want to help me?  Well, nevermind, I suppose one can’t be choosy in the matter, so let’s get started.” 

Some time later:

F:  “Did you check to make sure the shell can take the pressure?” 

V:  “Yes, the ship will work as expected.” 

F:  “We don’t know what is on the other side so have to be ready for anything.   Let’s start her up.” 

Captain Veineas pushed the control lever to ‘ascend,’ the craft shuddered slightly and the crew felt a light crush from the acceleration upward. 

V:  “25km…40km…50km…”

F:  “What the!,…the æther is starting to fade!” 

V:  “65km…75km…100km”

F:  “What is that?!”

V:  “It appears to be a large source of light.”   

F:  “But everywhere else is black, uh, wait I see something, there are other tiny dots of light everywhere.   What are we looking at?”

V:  “Not sure.  We are beaming back the feed to scientists in Bubble 9.  They are conferring to propose some hypotheses.  One thinks the source of light might be where all the light comes from to illumine our bubbles.  They know that when we descend, the æther gets darker and hotter to the point we can’t descend further.  A few expeditions tried to go deeper but never returned.  Our feeds similarly just stopped working, probably from the heat.” 

F:  “We can see farther, the horizon looks curved, what does that mean?”

V:  “Bubble 9 thinks it may curve around back to itself”

Fiain:  “Meaning?”

Veineas: “That we live on a spherical plane.” 

Dr. Fiain and Captain Veineas sat looking out the window to the puzzling scene before them.

-------------------

Romanov awoke to his alarm blaring ‘Yeah, baby, she's got it I'm your Venus, I'm your fire at your desire.’  Always with an ironic sense of humor, he programmed his phone to alert him of any new anomalies picked up by probe Venera-D.  His older colleagues got a kick out of his love of U.S. ‘80s music.  ‘It must remind them of the good ol’ days.’ thought Romanov.   He arrived at the Venera-D control mission and started looking at the data feeds.  He couldn't believe his eyes.  On the screen he saw pictures of a strange alien craft rising out of the mists of Venus’ atmosphere.  By his desk, he kept a bottle of wine he had been saving for the right occasion.  “Well, might as well celebrate”, he said to no one in particular.   Some had speculated that early Venus had harbored life but had since been rendered lifeless due to its hellish surface.  He thought to himself, ‘Maybe if the transformation were slow enough, then life might have adapted itself to living not on the surface but to living in the thick atmosphere at more hospitable heights.’  He drifted into further thought humming some cheery 80s tune.