Sunday, April 27, 2014

1st Law of Space Warfare

It's been stated as a rule-of-thumb and a pretty good one, that warfare is 90% logistics.  As far as space warfare is concerned, I would posit a law (and by law I mean a total S.W.A.G. unproven theory on my part)  that war in or from orbit is 99% logistics.  Interplanetary warfare would be 99.9% logistics and interstellar warfare would be 99.99% or more logistics.  It could be off by several factors but the main argument is that space warfare would be almost entirely mostly fighting for survival against the environment and not an 'enemy.'  Thus surviving longer than one's enemy is 'winning.'  This theory also has other implications politically concerning space colonization and eventual weaponization.   As the "logistics" part of space warfare would pretty much look exactly like its civilian use-of-space logistics, then space colonization IS space weaponization or close enough to make weaponization inevitable.  

  

Saturday, April 26, 2014

High Frequency Trading across the 'Verse


Just read story about Michael Lewis' expose of HFT in his new book Flash Boys.  Interesting how times change but some things remain the same.  Such as stock brokers gaming investors for their own gain via front-running or in this case high frequency trading.  From what I can gather on the subject, traders use very fast computers to trade thousands of trade per second to reap a fraction of cents on each trade.  The brokerages even put their computers as close to the exchange as possible to gain and edge.  They even try to get the fastest methods to communicate futures prices from Chicago exchanges to the New York exchanges via line-of-sight microwave relays.  Not that it is all bad.  It can be argued that HFT creates liquidity and thereby keeps bid-ask spreads small.

But what of trading across the planets?

I'm sure in some future colony on Mars, there will be brokers there trying the same things.  But arbitraging price differences across the minutes it would take for interplanetary comms would almost certainly be impossible in context of high frequency trading.  But trading houses could take advantage by having outposts in the middle between the two planets.  Brokerages with outposts closer would have information before other brokers without outposts.  So in theory one would place the exchange itself in the middle to mediate trade of paper instruments, though these days of course these paper instruments are only 1 and 0s recorded in ledgers in the Cloud.  It would be in the middle or close to it (Lagrange points) as no doubt brokers would game interplanetary distance differences from both Earth-side and Mars-side.  So traders would put in orders which would route through relays on the Interplanetary Internet.   I suppose future space brokers would find some creative ways to fleece future colonists out of their hard-earned Marscoin





Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Où suis-je?

“Où suis-je?”  thought the patient.                                                                         

"Sure went sideways didn't it?" replied the General.

“Where is Marie?” 

“She got out on the latest ship, she is still in stasis and will be for another few days.  We got the printer working again.  It’s hard to get the right materials in this backwater. “ 

 “How long have I been out?”
“About one local orbit, or ‘year’ as these locals call it.” 

“So what went wrong exactly?” the patient asked.

“Well, the social scientists are working on it.  Consensus is that local technology development has shifted the ability of our Psy Ops to control the locals.  Their ability to get information to wider audiences has greatly improved these last couple hundred years.”

“You got that right!” 


“Well, in this case, these new ideas being spread around got a little ahead of us.  We are still assessing the consequences.”  the General stated.

“Has this been reported to High Command?” the patient intoned.   

“Yes, but as you know, the signal won’t reach them for another hundred years.  And then we won’t hear the response for another hundred after that.  That’s why High Command commissioned this study in the first place a decllenium ago.  We have to learn as we go along.  The paradigm was working for quite awhile now, but now there is something interesting happening here.  From this experiment, High Command hopes to learn better ways to administer the Dominion.” 

“So what now?”
“No need to worry,  Psy Ops is coming  up with something.  The admiral running that outfit has some clever ideas.  She has a theory that instead of fighting the technological development of the locals, we should co-opt it and seek to control that way and other ways.  She thinks we can play one nation off another but on a massive scale.  We will control critical thought by creating fear of an outsider bogeyman in order to maintain our infiltrated leadership cadres.  A clever fellow under her, an economist, I believe, has a few other ideas to try.  Something about replacing silver coins with paper currency and thereby creating unwitting debt-serfs.”

“Is that what happened to me?  There was no outside bogeyman to pin the blame on for the population’s anger?” the patient inquired.

“More or less.  Good thing we got there in time to recover your remains.  Otherwise, you may have wound up pickled in a jar somewhere.  That information-theoretic death is no joke.   We had to get you in stasis quick.  Finding the right materials took time which is why we had you in stasis for so long.”  
“Sure could use a glass of wine right about now.  I miss that, it was the best down there.” the patient wondered.

“Soon enough, but you have to wait a few more days.  The medics are still printing out your new body as we speak.  Once we reattach your head, then we can have a drink.” 

“Yeah, I hate having to go through the process.  It is so ‘incorporeal’ if you may pardon the pun.  Being awake for these pre-surgery diagnostics is just plain weird.”

“Well, we all go through it.  It’s just part of life.”

"Do I have a new assignment yet?”

 “Yes, that is all being worked out.  You’ll be good as new in a few days.  But rest a bit before we get into details.  You’ll need to get a new language implant, English, I believe.   You will test this new theory by ‘fighting’ against our agent already in place.  A good fellow, name is Napoleon” the General said. 

“I’ll have the medics call you when I’m ready for that drink.  Thanks for getting me outta there.  It was my first decapitation.  I don’t think I want to go through that again.” said the patient.
“Yeah, had a couple of those myself going back a couple hundred years.  Back in my operator days.    Definitely an unforgettable experience.  Lou,  by the way, how was Versailles?”

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